Wednesday, January 11, 2017

The Silence of the Puppies

This Rabid Puppies 2017 post on Vox Popoli, calling for what amounts to a withdrawal of forces (if you're already registered, vote; if not, don't register) from the Hugos, racked up a measly 36 comments.

I don't know what's happening, but it surely cannot be good for the enemies of the Puppies. More as it develops.

Update (1/12/17)

Driving home yesterday, my brain woke up and figured it out.

1). The first rule of Vox Day is that Vox Day says what he's going to do, and then does it.

I would highly doubt that there's some sort of secret Rabid buildup going on. The Vox Popoli announcement is legit. Kickers, take a breath. Just one.

2). Even without EPH, it makes sense to switch targets.

 This is basic OODA/terrorism/guerrilla warfare stuff. Never hit where they expect you to hit, because then they can harden defenses and repel more effectively. Spread out and hit soft targets, thus stretching defensive resources, thus weakening the real targets' ability to defend themselves.

In other words, it makes sense to switch targets now that the Kickers are used to getting hit at the Hugos.

Btw - I'm certain that the Puppies could make life Hell at the Hugos this year, even under EPH. The question is, "is there a better use for those resources?"

3). The Hugos are a tainted brand (Space. Raptor. Butt. Invasion.). 

Maybe it's still an ultimate goal for the Puppies, as a final proof of victory, but it offers little tactical value. Particularly when the Dragon Awards loom like an unplucked jewel over the horizon.

4). This is a chance to neutralize the Kickers without fighting them.

Now that the Rabids are effectively withdrawing from the Hugos, the Kickers are going to feel a tremendous sense of relief, happiness, gloating, and calm. The demons what pissed in their Cheerios since 2013 are gone! EPH worked! 2016 is over! Let freedom ring, baby!

So the withdrawal trick isn't to drop defenses at the Hugos. The trick is to dangle a psychological carrot - just claim victory and retreat into the Hugos and a stick - do you really want to keep fighting this fight? - and let the enemy's will to fight collapse. Meanwhile, your forces hit a completely different, undefended, more valuable target. Good stuff.

5). Memetic warfare

This is spittballing, but I expect something along the lines of "Dragon Award winners sell more books than Hugo winners" / "Dragon Award winners make more money than Hugo winners" to make the rounds after it's too late for the Kickers to marshal effective opposition at Dragoncon.

6). Kickers will read this post, deny that they're going to declare victory and retreat into the Hugos safe space, then retreat into the Hugos safe space and declare victory.

Then, in a surprisingly short amount of time, they'll start whining about how no one cares about the Hugos anymore.

And they still, still, still won't see why that's funny.


  1. Yes, I have little doubt that the Supreme Dark Lord has plans, and that those plans are more dangerous than his enemies suspect. Of course, if this year is relatively calm, they'll congratulate themselves on their victory and sigh relief that it's all over. Long-term strategy is apparently nearly unimaginable to them.

    Is EPH in effect yet?

  2. The culture wars have been interesting recently and the analysis is spot on. Kickers are still kinda oblivious though. I wonder if they will mobilize effective or if the Rapids will just turn into their personal ISIS.

    1. The Puppies are already ISIS. Without the need to become a permanent State/Caliphate at any point, just for constant conflict.